Last week the Bank of Russia lowered its key rate, and most English-language headlines called it a dovish signal. The reality inside the Russian market is more complicated — and more interesting.
In my first full analysis for Siberian Alpha, I break down the decision and why the OFZ curve is sending a warning that equities haven’t yet priced in. The piece covers:
- The hawkish revision in the CBR’s own forward guidance that most foreign observers overlooked
- Why the ruble reacted calmly — and what could change that
- A clear framework for what to watch in the coming weeks
If you want to understand Russian monetary policy beyond the surface, this one’s for you.
Read the full analysis on Substack: The CBR’s Rate Cut: A Dovish Mirage?