The CBR Just Delivered a “Hawkish Cut” – And the Market Missed It

Russia‘s central bank slowed its easing cycle to a crawl. Here’s what the 25‑bp surprise means for your portfolio.

>p align=”justify”>On June 19, the Bank of Russia cut its key rate to 14.25% – but only by 25 basis points, against a consensus forecast of 50. The message was clear: inflation isn‘t beaten yet, and fiscal policy is complicating the picture.

In our latest analysis, we break down:

  • Why the CBR chose caution over consensus
  • Three pro‑inflationary risks that forced a smaller cut
  • What this means for high‑debt stocks, the ruble, and exporters
  • Why the next meeting (July 24) could bring a pause

Read the full breakdown on Substack

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